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Report Suggests Nation's Overworked Electricity Network Will Leave Some in Dark this Summer

May 15, 2001  

The coming hot months will bring more blackouts to California, less reliability in the Northeast and continued stress on an inadequate electricity system, a report released today by the North American Electric Reliability Council warned.

Western states will probably face the biggest challenges, NERC experts said today at a press conference in Washington, DC.  A continuing drought in the Northwest will likely prevent those states from exporting hydroelectricity to California, Jerry Rust, Northwest Power Pool director said.  Two-thirds of the power in the Pacific Northwest comes from hydroelectric power and the water supply has dipped to critically low levels.

"Our reservoirs have the second lowest water level readings since we started keeping records," Rust said.  "We need a rain of biblical proportions."

NERC officials said the Pacific Northwest will likely pull through the summer without power outages but could experience rolling blackouts this winter when their demand increases.

The 2001 Summer Assessment, available at the NERC web site at www.nerc.com, cautions New England and New York City bear close scrutiny in the coming months.  The analysis said New York City and the Northeast are susceptible to long-term heatwaves and generator outages.  Knowing the city's vulnerability, New York officials have been scrambling to increase power generation before summer, said Charles Durkin, Jr., Northeast Power Coordinating Council chairman.

"Blackouts are not anticipated this summer, provided the city gets its new generation in place," he said.  "If it is delayed, they could have some shortfall."

In California this summer, NERC expects 260 hours of rotating blackouts and forecasts that the state's distribution network, the California Independent System Operator, will be short as much as 5,500 megawatts during peak periods.

NERC officials warn that changes in power delivery systems because of the complexities of deregulating the market have overwhelmed the country's transmission and distribution network, particularly in the transfer of power between north and south.  The report predicts that the north/south congestion will continue through the summer.

Aside from those regions that could experience trouble, the NERC report said resources in other areas are expected to be adequate, assuming systems are not affected by widespread heat waves, higher than expected generator unavailability or transmission equipment failure.

NERC is a nonprofit corporation with members from various segments of the electric industry, including investor-owned utilities, federal power agencies, rural electric cooperatives, state municipal power utilities, independent power producers and power marketers.